Research firm IDC now expects global smartphone shipments in 2025 to rise by about 1.5%, reaching approximately 1.25 billion units.
This uptick is largely driven by soaring demand for Apple’s latest iPhone 17 series — helping Apple project a record year with around 247 million iPhones shipped.

What’s Fueling the Growth

In China — Apple’s largest market — the iPhone 17 surge pushed Apple’s market share past 20% in October and November 2025, reversing earlier projections of a decline.

The strong demand for premium phones, especially the iPhone 17 lineup, is offsetting softness in other segments and regions.

What Happens After — 2026 Outlook

Despite the 2025 growth, IDC forecasts global smartphone shipments could decline by 0.9% in 2026. The main reasons: rising memory-chip costs driving up device prices, and a planned delay of Apple’s next base iPhone until early 2027 — expected to pull down iOS device shipments.
Still, average selling prices (ASPs) for smartphones are expected to hit record highs next year — which means the overall market value may go up even as units dip.

What It Means for Consumers & the Market

2025 could be a strong year for premium flagship phones (like iPhone 17), especially if you want a device with high resale value and broad global demand.

On the flip side — mid-range and budget smartphones (particularly Android) may feel more pressure next year, either through higher prices or slower updates, as memory-chip costs bite.